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Recent samples can be downloaded below (no obligation, no emails required). The only way to do that is by consulting multiple robust models that are not too correlated with each other in make-up or methodology.The RFE allows you to manage a delicate balancing act between early warning and accuracy. NBER co-incident Recession Model Report [END OF EACH MONTH, sample report up to ] This model uses the exact monthly economic indicators deployed by the National Buro for Economic Research (NBER) for their recession dating determinations.In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity.While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth.We do this through various weekly and monthly PDF reports, live timing model and charts heads-up-displays, as well as insightful subscriber-only research from our RESEARCH section and occasional commentary from our REFLECTIONS blog.
This group reviews a variety of economic statistics and indicators of U. economic conditions before deciding on the turning points in the economy—business cycle peaks and troughs—that define periods of recessions and expansions. Official Recessions and Expansions The NBER web site describes a recession and the types of economy-wide economic data used to identify a recession in the U. economy as follows: A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.Official business cycle dates—the peaks and troughs in the economy that define recessions and expansions—in the U. Today it has over 600 university professors and researchers who conduct empirical research on the economy as Bureau associates.Business Cycles Within the NBER, the Business Cycle Dating Committee plays the key role in determining business cycle dates.Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity.
Despite boasts during the boom years of the late 1990s about taming business cycle downturns, the U. economy slumped into a recession that lasted from March 2001 until November 2001.